Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Copper medium term view

Copper Medium term view LME : Cmp 8350

A)     Pattern view: Possible Head & shoulder with a small head & shoulder In right Shoulder – A bearish pattern starting to Unfold

Copper has been forming a head Shoulder pattern on weekly charts With left shoulder formed between July2009--Jun2010
And Head Formation From june 2010-- Sep2011
 & right Shoulder From Sep2011 to current away , Interesting to Know is each Shoulder--head-shoulder has roughly taken anywhere between 50-54 weeks interesting on time cycle  with The neck Line at  6800
Looking at short term charts the right shoulder is also Developing into a smaller head & shoulder pattern With each time taking of roughly 16 weeks The Neckline is Currently at 7500 and immediate upside Resistance is at 8600
So till weekly prices Are not able to Close above 8600 levels and We See a Fall back below 7300 , first The bearish indications will play for downside targets of 6400 level , Which would be Roughly near the Neckline of The larger head & shoulder

The wave counts also Suggest that we are in corrective down trend in medium term with the larger C wave starting to Unfold with Possible targets of 6200, To see Complete wave counts  plz find attached chart

Hence on upside the potential upside as if now is range of 4-10 % with many important resistance on the way and probabilities of heading down for a correction of 25 + % is getting higher in next  12—18 Months

The above reco would be negated if we have a Weekly close above 9200 Lme

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Natural Gas medium term Update -- Supports & Resistance

Natural gas Started the Last leg of Major downfall From 4.954 in month of may Falling more than 45 % currenty trading at 2.71 $ , the Complete Downfall Looks like a clear 5 wave structure where at this point of time we  are in v of 5 of C ,
The possible pattern targets where Natrual gas Could find support is Currently at 2.55 $ (wave 5 = 1.618% of wave 1) , The Complete downfall is in a Clear Downward Channel Which has important channel support at 2.62--2.65 $ zone  $
Hence This Current Zone of 2.55$ --- 2.67$ Zone is Very important Support Zone for Longterm ,                 On daily charts the RSI 14 is currently at 29 Which is almost approaching the oversold Zone. at This point of time we Dont have any reversal pattern visible which May indicate that the prices have bottomed out , but it Clearly is not a Place to go Shorts for medium term Unless these Supports are broken , If broken we May head to immediate Next support at 2.38
Looking at the Long term weekly charts We may be in Process of Making a B wave Low and a High probability of Major reversal From current Levels For Next 6--9 Months cant be rulled out

But before taking Any Longs one has to wait For Confirmation of Price reversal as price is King and Once confirmed the Upside Projected targets would be 3.65--4.25 Immediately and Much Higher If this Levels are taken out again