Crude oil Nymex : Crude oil Faced stiff Resistance near the previous Double top of 73.46 in week after Rising From the Short term bottom Formed in the week at 68.71$ . Falling to Cross the previous Resistance Crude oil fell Down Sharply on last trading Session to close at 67.47 $ breaching the short term bottom of 68.71$ , Which clearly Signals weakness and suggesting that it is again going down to test the next Short term Support at 63.45 $ & later the medium term support at 58.32$. on the upside crude oil will Now Face Stiff resistance at 68.71 $( Support becoming Resistance) & later on at 70.05 $ and 72.85$
Looking at Daily Charts indicators the MACD has clearly given a Sell Sign turning Downward and suggesting that crude oil could be heading for the intermediate target of 62.05$ in the following week. Stochastic oscillator@ 73 Now Suggesting that uptrend is Now capped & crude oil could get into a Sideways consolidation or slowly Drift Downwards
Looking at the Larger picture the weekly charts are clearly suggesting that the rise From medium term lows of 33.26 $ to 73.46$ is Over and the Next leg of Consolidation & downward journey has Started and re opening the possibilities of Re-test Of medium term Supports at 58$ below Which 55 $ and Finally 48.56 $ possible . On the Upside 73.46 $ previous week's top (yes dbl top) will be a Stiff Resistance to Cross and above the upward journey will face resistance at fib levels of complete move From 147$ to 33 $ . giving Resistance at 76.7$ (38.2 %) & 90.4 $ (50%) . A Close above Same Would mean that medium term correction is Over and possible of sharp reversal in price will start Factoring in
MCX Crude oil : MCX crude oil felt down 4.5 % on first day of New Contract following Global prices. Multiple tops Have been at 3567 Levels and The last two days Clearing signally a trend reversal with a Shooting star at top and follow up Sell off Closing Finally at 3382
Mix Crude oil in short term Will find support at 3279 & 3173 ( short term bottom). MCX crude could Find support 3325 in the Following A trend . A Close Only above 3510 Would indicate the Correction is Over and Final Could again re test the Short term Resistance at 3567 . A Strong Move Above Same with volumes Would Indicate that a New leg of Fresh up Move Has started opening upside Possible targets of 3640--3730
NYMEX Natural Gas : Natural gas after making a new yearly Low at 3.150 bounced back to close at 3.277 with little profit Booking Setting in From Shorts over The week in the last hour of the trade. NG Closed more than 11.5 % Down for the week
Looking at the Daily charts it clearly indicates that still lot of weakness is left and the again a breach of short term support at 3.150 & 3.255 Could open the Next possible target of the psychological level of 3.00 $. A few session trading below same would Indicate that the ones playing for the seasonal long on Natural gas Which generally starts From July to December Also start unwinding positions and as no new fresh buyers Would Set in Could put severe pressure on prices opening the Downside possible target of 2.68$. On upside 3.42$ will be a Strong resistance in the short term & a piercing Close Above Same would Indicate the short term Consolidation which is going on in form a triangle is Still going on could Re open upside target of 4$ again
Looking at the indicators the MACD & RSI are almost nearing oversold zone and a bounce back again cant be ruled out. The stochastic oscillator is at lowest support levels indicating can reverse Soon if the prices stay afloat above 3.42 $ zone Levels. The Overall trend hence looks weak if NG continues to trade below the support of 3.25 and if Mange’s to trade above Same would Mean that Sideways consolidation is still going on and retest of 4$ cant be ruled out ..
MCX Natural gas : MCX natural gas mange to Stay above the Crucial support level of 158 , Indicating little bit strength . A Breach of Same Would open downside targets of 152 and 135 as first target . On upside natural gas Will Find Strong Resistance at 174 & 188 levels a close Above Same Would mean that the short term trend has turned Bullish opening upside target of 229.