Sunday, August 16, 2009

Weekly Technical outlook Base Metals

BASE Metals :

Looking at last two candles of the most widely traded base metals Like copper, Nickel , Zinc, lead, aluminum all Are Showing Some or the other type of Candlestick reversal patterns indicating that if the Following week if Prices fail to Cross the recent high and weaken further indicating, Short term top is getting Formed and prices could Correct get into a Sideways move or a correction which could be a Little sharper More than 10 % as the prices had Move up a lot in Recent weeks

Copper MCX : a Close Below 301 Would open Downside targets of 292--271 with immediate Reistance at 311

Nickel MCX : Resistance at 962--980 , Supports at 928--880--740

Zinc MCX : Immediate Support Seen at 85.5 Below Which could head for 81 , on upside 89.25 & 01 are Strong resistance

Lead MCX : Lead below 88 Could re test the support at 83.5 and on upside has resistance at 89-90.4--91.95-92

Weekly Technical outlook

Precious Metals

Comex gold : Gold Manged to close at 948.3 $ Down by 0.5 % for week. Gold Manged to retest the uper trend Line resiatnce at 962$ after giving a False Breakout of the inverted head & shoulder Patterns on daily basis formed in short term bottom. But Failled to Cross the immediate Resiatcne Finally falling of the cliff again to Close at Support level of 948.3 $ as indicated in the previous Post that this Lvel is a crucial level. Overall gold has Been In sideays For the past three weeks and has been making Doji's on the weekly chart on closing basis , Idnicating that its lacking a clear Signal from the market For the further trend
Looking at the medium term picture till the time Short term resistance of 963 & 977 $ are Crossed on closing basis it would move sideways to Downwards opeing a re-test of 924$ and below which pyschological level of 900 $.

Looking at the indicators MACD & RSI still suggest that it will continue the Sideways Movement . The Stochastic Oscialltor Is indiaction a Short term Downard move. Hence Overall medium term trend is sideways to Downside unless the Medium term reistance of 977 $ is taken off

MCX gold : MCX Gold traded In small range of 3 % for complete week , On upsdie facing Strong resistance near the short term trend Reversal level of 15050 and on dowside getting Support Near the medium term Support Zone of 14750 .Overall the trend Is Looks into Sideways consolidation lacking clear Direction. A Firm Close above 15125 would Mean that the upsdie trend has Resumed and Would Open targets till 15400--15700. On dowsndie 14500 and 14310 Are strong Supports Zone and buying again could come in at Those levels . If Doesnt breach any ways of these crucial level the Same sidewyas trend Would Continue

Comex Silver : Silver prices Were max volatile for the week making a New Monthly high of 15.18 $ finally Falling sharply on last trading Session of week to Close at 14.710 . So has the prices are trading above the short term Support zone of 14.17 $ the upsdie can continue. for re-test of Medium term Resiatcne at 16.25 $ . overall trend Seems to be strong on the upside with Strong bounce coming in on ever Higher bottom made . The Overall Short term Trend will continue to Be bullish So far the 14.17 $ support Is held , Below Which opening the downard targets of re test of Recent medium Term Lows at 12.25 $
Looking at the Indicators the MACD has First given weaking sign indicating that Bulls need to get the Trailling SL for longs quite close. The RSI is about to apporch the short term Over bought zone. The Stochastic Is indiacting that prices Will remian Range bound with traders jumping in to Buy at every Dip.HEnce the Medium Short term trend will remian postive till time it manges ot trade above 14.17$ and fruther break below that would indicate that the prices are getting in correction mode , opeing Downside targets of 12.45 & 11.06 $

MCX silver : MCX silver made New weekly high of 24270 crossing over the previous High of 24149, but Final looseing the steam to close the week at 23714. The Momentum on the upsdie remians to be strong So far 23300 is held On closing basis opening upsdie Possible targets of 24450 ^ 24899 , A Breach below 23300 Would open retest of short term supports at 22900 and a Breach of same Would Indicate that overall short term upside trend is over and prices are all set to correct opening Downside possible targets of 21600 and 20800 eventually

Weekly Technical outlook

Crude oil Nymex : Crude oil Faced stiff Resistance near the previous Double top of 73.46 in week after Rising From the Short term bottom Formed in the week at 68.71$ . Falling to Cross the previous Resistance Crude oil fell Down Sharply on last trading Session to close at 67.47 $ breaching the short term bottom of 68.71$ , Which clearly Signals weakness and suggesting that it is again going down to test the next Short term Support at 63.45 $ & later the medium term support at 58.32$. on the upside crude oil will Now Face Stiff resistance at 68.71 $( Support becoming Resistance) & later on at 70.05 $ and 72.85$

Looking at Daily Charts indicators the MACD has clearly given a Sell Sign turning Downward and suggesting that crude oil could be heading for the intermediate target of 62.05$ in the following week. Stochastic oscillator@ 73 Now Suggesting that uptrend is Now capped & crude oil could get into a Sideways consolidation or slowly Drift Downwards

Looking at the Larger picture the weekly charts are clearly suggesting that the rise From medium term lows of 33.26 $ to 73.46$ is Over and the Next leg of Consolidation & downward journey has Started and re opening the possibilities of Re-test Of medium term Supports at 58$ below Which 55 $ and Finally 48.56 $ possible . On the Upside 73.46 $ previous week's top (yes dbl top) will be a Stiff Resistance to Cross and above the upward journey will face resistance at fib levels of complete move From 147$ to 33 $ . giving Resistance at 76.7$ (38.2 %) & 90.4 $ (50%) . A Close above Same Would mean that medium term correction is Over and possible of sharp reversal in price will start Factoring in

MCX Crude oil : MCX crude oil felt down 4.5 % on first day of New Contract following Global prices. Multiple tops Have been at 3567 Levels and The last two days Clearing signally a trend reversal with a Shooting star at top and follow up Sell off Closing Finally at 3382
Mix Crude oil in short term Will find support at 3279 & 3173 ( short term bottom). MCX crude could Find support 3325 in the Following A trend . A Close Only above 3510 Would indicate the Correction is Over and Final Could again re test the Short term Resistance at 3567 . A Strong Move Above Same with volumes Would Indicate that a New leg of Fresh up Move Has started opening upside Possible targets of 3640--3730

NYMEX Natural Gas : Natural gas after making a new yearly Low at 3.150 bounced back to close at 3.277 with little profit Booking Setting in From Shorts over The week in the last hour of the trade. NG Closed more than 11.5 % Down for the week

Looking at the Daily charts it clearly indicates that still lot of weakness is left and the again a breach of short term support at 3.150 & 3.255 Could open the Next possible target of the psychological level of 3.00 $. A few session trading below same would Indicate that the ones playing for the seasonal long on Natural gas Which generally starts From July to December Also start unwinding positions and as no new fresh buyers Would Set in Could put severe pressure on prices opening the Downside possible target of 2.68$. On upside 3.42$ will be a Strong resistance in the short term & a piercing Close Above Same would Indicate the short term Consolidation which is going on in form a triangle is Still going on could Re open upside target of 4$ again

Looking at the indicators the MACD & RSI are almost nearing oversold zone and a bounce back again cant be ruled out. The stochastic oscillator is at lowest support levels indicating can reverse Soon if the prices stay afloat above 3.42 $ zone Levels. The Overall trend hence looks weak if NG continues to trade below the support of 3.25 and if Mange’s to trade above Same would Mean that Sideways consolidation is still going on and retest of 4$ cant be ruled out ..

MCX Natural gas : MCX natural gas mange to Stay above the Crucial support level of 158 , Indicating little bit strength . A Breach of Same Would open downside targets of 152 and 135 as first target . On upside natural gas Will Find Strong Resistance at 174 & 188 levels a close Above Same Would mean that the short term trend has turned Bullish opening upside target of 229.