Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Silver Short term technical view 260809

Silver made a high of 24250 in second week Of august later on fall sharply downwards to 22500 which was strong medium term support to Bounce back sub 23400 level , the Complete retracement was in a form a Channel which has height of almost 650 Points . Looking at different possibilities over short term and Patterns visible

case a) medium term trend Shows that the retracement was in Form a channel and Now will face strong resistance in the Zone of 23600-23750 Zone, a strong momentum close above the said levels can open upside target of 23750+ 650(channel height) i.e. 24400 .

Case b) If unable to Cross the resistance of 23600-750 and falls back to re test the support near 23250 and a Breach below same would open possible Downside targets of 23250-650 (channel height) i.e. 22600 and Over larger trend Possible downside targets of 21850-22100 .. Possible Extension of Previous Move

Important Levels : 23210--23265 Zone Downside
23600-23750 upsdie
Chart analysis : case a) marked with pink arrows
case b) Marked With yellow arrows
Channel marked with blue Lines

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Technical view 260809

Comex gold : Comex gold has been trading still in the triangle in medium term which is range of 926 & 972 $ , a Breach on any Side Would signal the next possible trend. In the short term its been Hovering in Small range of 935 $ & 960$ , Suggest good Consolidation a Decisive break on Any side with good volumes will lead to further trend which can be there For next 3-4 weeks

MCX gold : Gold Has been lot whipsaws Recently trading in larger channel of 14800 & 15025 , and on intraday Basis Breaching Both the levels in currently week, but managing to Close again inside the range same Day , A clear close outside range of 14800 on downside would open targets till 14450 & on upside a close above 15065 Would Open target of 15350
Trend Analysis : Sideways Range boundGold : 14940-14970-15010-15035-15070 Trend (Range bound sideways)

Comex Silver : Comex Silver Re-tested the medium term Resistance in Zone of 14.45$ & 14.55$ , a Breakout above same would Mean the start of fresh new up trend After consolidation opening upside target of 14.86--15.05 Shorts Can be taken for Short term with Closing Sl at 14.55 , with Again downside targets of 14.02--13.85 levels

MCX silver : Silver Will Face stiff resistance in the zone of 23500-23550 , a breakout above same with good volumes can open upside target of 23800-23940. Avoid Fresh long unless 23550 is taken off with volumes. on the downside supports are Seen at 23289-23210-23040
Trend analysis Silver: 23525 Important resistance Above that 23685, Support 23289-23210-23040 (buy only if sustains above 23525)

Crude oil Nymex : Crude corrected sharply From higher levels of 74.86 $ to close below 72$ , the intermediate support is seen at 70.45$ where traders can again look to buy with SL below 69.55 , On upside will face Resistance at 72.45$ & 73.80$ again
Trend Analysis : Buy on Dips till 69$ is held on closing basis

MCX crude : Crude oil will Find Support in range of 3432 levels Which is important Support level , below Which trend will reverse on upside Resistance is Seen at 3565 & 3600 , A firm Close above 3630 Will open upward targets of 3780Trend Analysis : Buy on Dips till 3420 is held on closing basis

Natural gas Nymex : Natural gas after bouncing of little From the oversold region is trading in a Bullish flag more on Sideways near the zone of 3.20 $ , a Move 3.385 Would open upside target of 3.68$ . on downside supports at 3.01 & 2.80 are Seen , Re-test Of recent lows Cant be ruled Out. On upside Strong resistance is seen at 3.530 & 3.65 levels is seen

MCX natural gas : Natural gas Price Bounced of from recent lows of 155, the oversold zone to test the first resistance at 165 , And Retracted back to consolidate again in range of 159 & 162 , on upside Breach of 165 would open targets till 172--174, On downside supports seen at 155-158

Base metals Levels :
Nickel : 927--931-938-946-954-968
copper 311.35-309.3-308.5-306.5
Lead :100.2-99.5-98.65-98
Zinc : 90-89.4-88.6-8T

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Crude oil Technical view 260809

Crude oil has been Moving in a Rising wedge Since the upmove from 63 $ to 75 $ , currently the supports are coming in at 70.65 $ , where Short term traders can Look to long again with SL below 69.50 % for target of 74 $ again . A close below 69.50 $ would mean that the upmove from 63$ to 75 $ has completed and the commodity could correct & retrace back to next intermediate support aroudn 67.3 $ and Below that re-test the short term Lows again . On upsdie It will find String resistance at 72.45 $ and above that at 73.86$--75$ ,

Friday, August 21, 2009

Gold Range Trade - Technical channel breakout

Gold breaking out of a Channel , above 15025 an upside of 180 bucks can be trades With SL just below 15000

Technical view 210809

MCX Gold: Gold Prices have Been Range Bound to Downwards for the week heading from upper end of the resistance Channel at 15010 Levels to Lower Support End at 14825 levels
The prices more or less Seems to Trade in Very Small Range mainly effected by the Currency Movement.
Trend Analysis: Range Bound - Sideways

Comex Gold: Trading in sub due Range of 940$, Comex gold has Been In very Small range of 15$ for complete week as if now. As Indicated before Finding Resistance at crucial resistance zone of 948$ and supports on down side Range of 932$ below which Next Support is at 925$
Trend Analysis: Range Bound - Sideways

MCX Silver: Silver prices Edged Lower for the week and took Support at medium term Support zone of 22500 and Bounced back from there to trade in median Range of 22700-22900 Levels
Strategy Still Remains of buys on dips Side to trade Silver So far as 22500 Medium term Support is held on closing basis. Positive Divergence is seen on indicators Which Suggest a Sharp pull back due to Short covering or Fresh buying near Supports Cant be Ruled Out
Trend Analysis: buy on Dips

Comex Silver: Silver prices dropped below the crucial level of 14.17$ to immediately test the second short term Support at 13.54$, and Re bounced back to test the psychological level of 14$ again. 13.54--13.20$ is good Support zone with multiple supports in range, Fresh buying Can be initiated for medium target of 15 $ again.
Trend Analysis: Buy on dips With SL below 13.20$ closing basis

MCX Crude oil: Crude oil Prices gave a fresh breakout to move higher towards the 3620 mark, the previous Resistance at 3475-3510 Will now act as a good Support on medium term, A retest of the Following level cant be ruled out and fresh Long positions can be created near these levels For new Highs, trend reversal only if manages to close below 3425
Trend Analysis: Bullish

NYMEX crude oil (Sep contract) : Crude oil Prices Moved Higher to Make a new high of 74$ finally breaking out the crucial Resistance zone of 73.46$ ,on upside open chances for re test of possible targets of 75$ & 76.5 $ on short term, supports will come in at 72$ & 70.17 $
Trend analysis: Bullish

MCX Copper : Copper prices have been finding Support Near 292 Zone and on upside Resistance at 301 Level and been trading the same Range For last few days, Fresh Shorts Can be initiated Only if manages to Close below 289.5 Levels for further downside targets of 274.till keep trading in the range
Trend Analysis: Sideways to Down

Comex Copper : Copper Prices have been getting good Support in the range of 271$ , managed to test Same many time in intraday But failed to Close below Indicating strength and Fresh buying coming in the same level. Shorts may be Created only on breach these Levels On closing basis. On upside Resistance at 281$ & 285 $

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Weekly Technical outlook Base Metals

BASE Metals :

Looking at last two candles of the most widely traded base metals Like copper, Nickel , Zinc, lead, aluminum all Are Showing Some or the other type of Candlestick reversal patterns indicating that if the Following week if Prices fail to Cross the recent high and weaken further indicating, Short term top is getting Formed and prices could Correct get into a Sideways move or a correction which could be a Little sharper More than 10 % as the prices had Move up a lot in Recent weeks

Copper MCX : a Close Below 301 Would open Downside targets of 292--271 with immediate Reistance at 311

Nickel MCX : Resistance at 962--980 , Supports at 928--880--740

Zinc MCX : Immediate Support Seen at 85.5 Below Which could head for 81 , on upside 89.25 & 01 are Strong resistance

Lead MCX : Lead below 88 Could re test the support at 83.5 and on upside has resistance at 89-90.4--91.95-92

Weekly Technical outlook

Precious Metals

Comex gold : Gold Manged to close at 948.3 $ Down by 0.5 % for week. Gold Manged to retest the uper trend Line resiatnce at 962$ after giving a False Breakout of the inverted head & shoulder Patterns on daily basis formed in short term bottom. But Failled to Cross the immediate Resiatcne Finally falling of the cliff again to Close at Support level of 948.3 $ as indicated in the previous Post that this Lvel is a crucial level. Overall gold has Been In sideays For the past three weeks and has been making Doji's on the weekly chart on closing basis , Idnicating that its lacking a clear Signal from the market For the further trend
Looking at the medium term picture till the time Short term resistance of 963 & 977 $ are Crossed on closing basis it would move sideways to Downwards opeing a re-test of 924$ and below which pyschological level of 900 $.

Looking at the indicators MACD & RSI still suggest that it will continue the Sideways Movement . The Stochastic Oscialltor Is indiaction a Short term Downard move. Hence Overall medium term trend is sideways to Downside unless the Medium term reistance of 977 $ is taken off

MCX gold : MCX Gold traded In small range of 3 % for complete week , On upsdie facing Strong resistance near the short term trend Reversal level of 15050 and on dowside getting Support Near the medium term Support Zone of 14750 .Overall the trend Is Looks into Sideways consolidation lacking clear Direction. A Firm Close above 15125 would Mean that the upsdie trend has Resumed and Would Open targets till 15400--15700. On dowsndie 14500 and 14310 Are strong Supports Zone and buying again could come in at Those levels . If Doesnt breach any ways of these crucial level the Same sidewyas trend Would Continue

Comex Silver : Silver prices Were max volatile for the week making a New Monthly high of 15.18 $ finally Falling sharply on last trading Session of week to Close at 14.710 . So has the prices are trading above the short term Support zone of 14.17 $ the upsdie can continue. for re-test of Medium term Resiatcne at 16.25 $ . overall trend Seems to be strong on the upside with Strong bounce coming in on ever Higher bottom made . The Overall Short term Trend will continue to Be bullish So far the 14.17 $ support Is held , Below Which opening the downard targets of re test of Recent medium Term Lows at 12.25 $
Looking at the Indicators the MACD has First given weaking sign indicating that Bulls need to get the Trailling SL for longs quite close. The RSI is about to apporch the short term Over bought zone. The Stochastic Is indiacting that prices Will remian Range bound with traders jumping in to Buy at every Dip.HEnce the Medium Short term trend will remian postive till time it manges ot trade above 14.17$ and fruther break below that would indicate that the prices are getting in correction mode , opeing Downside targets of 12.45 & 11.06 $

MCX silver : MCX silver made New weekly high of 24270 crossing over the previous High of 24149, but Final looseing the steam to close the week at 23714. The Momentum on the upsdie remians to be strong So far 23300 is held On closing basis opening upsdie Possible targets of 24450 ^ 24899 , A Breach below 23300 Would open retest of short term supports at 22900 and a Breach of same Would Indicate that overall short term upside trend is over and prices are all set to correct opening Downside possible targets of 21600 and 20800 eventually

Weekly Technical outlook

Crude oil Nymex : Crude oil Faced stiff Resistance near the previous Double top of 73.46 in week after Rising From the Short term bottom Formed in the week at 68.71$ . Falling to Cross the previous Resistance Crude oil fell Down Sharply on last trading Session to close at 67.47 $ breaching the short term bottom of 68.71$ , Which clearly Signals weakness and suggesting that it is again going down to test the next Short term Support at 63.45 $ & later the medium term support at 58.32$. on the upside crude oil will Now Face Stiff resistance at 68.71 $( Support becoming Resistance) & later on at 70.05 $ and 72.85$

Looking at Daily Charts indicators the MACD has clearly given a Sell Sign turning Downward and suggesting that crude oil could be heading for the intermediate target of 62.05$ in the following week. Stochastic oscillator@ 73 Now Suggesting that uptrend is Now capped & crude oil could get into a Sideways consolidation or slowly Drift Downwards

Looking at the Larger picture the weekly charts are clearly suggesting that the rise From medium term lows of 33.26 $ to 73.46$ is Over and the Next leg of Consolidation & downward journey has Started and re opening the possibilities of Re-test Of medium term Supports at 58$ below Which 55 $ and Finally 48.56 $ possible . On the Upside 73.46 $ previous week's top (yes dbl top) will be a Stiff Resistance to Cross and above the upward journey will face resistance at fib levels of complete move From 147$ to 33 $ . giving Resistance at 76.7$ (38.2 %) & 90.4 $ (50%) . A Close above Same Would mean that medium term correction is Over and possible of sharp reversal in price will start Factoring in

MCX Crude oil : MCX crude oil felt down 4.5 % on first day of New Contract following Global prices. Multiple tops Have been at 3567 Levels and The last two days Clearing signally a trend reversal with a Shooting star at top and follow up Sell off Closing Finally at 3382
Mix Crude oil in short term Will find support at 3279 & 3173 ( short term bottom). MCX crude could Find support 3325 in the Following A trend . A Close Only above 3510 Would indicate the Correction is Over and Final Could again re test the Short term Resistance at 3567 . A Strong Move Above Same with volumes Would Indicate that a New leg of Fresh up Move Has started opening upside Possible targets of 3640--3730

NYMEX Natural Gas : Natural gas after making a new yearly Low at 3.150 bounced back to close at 3.277 with little profit Booking Setting in From Shorts over The week in the last hour of the trade. NG Closed more than 11.5 % Down for the week

Looking at the Daily charts it clearly indicates that still lot of weakness is left and the again a breach of short term support at 3.150 & 3.255 Could open the Next possible target of the psychological level of 3.00 $. A few session trading below same would Indicate that the ones playing for the seasonal long on Natural gas Which generally starts From July to December Also start unwinding positions and as no new fresh buyers Would Set in Could put severe pressure on prices opening the Downside possible target of 2.68$. On upside 3.42$ will be a Strong resistance in the short term & a piercing Close Above Same would Indicate the short term Consolidation which is going on in form a triangle is Still going on could Re open upside target of 4$ again

Looking at the indicators the MACD & RSI are almost nearing oversold zone and a bounce back again cant be ruled out. The stochastic oscillator is at lowest support levels indicating can reverse Soon if the prices stay afloat above 3.42 $ zone Levels. The Overall trend hence looks weak if NG continues to trade below the support of 3.25 and if Mange’s to trade above Same would Mean that Sideways consolidation is still going on and retest of 4$ cant be ruled out ..

MCX Natural gas : MCX natural gas mange to Stay above the Crucial support level of 158 , Indicating little bit strength . A Breach of Same Would open downside targets of 152 and 135 as first target . On upside natural gas Will Find Strong Resistance at 174 & 188 levels a close Above Same Would mean that the short term trend has turned Bullish opening upside target of 229.

Friday, August 14, 2009

Technical view 140809

MCX Gold : Gold traded sideways with little gains as indicated yersterday , we Still hold same view till time its trading below 15050 , it remains Same Sell on sell rise, Immediate Reistance to gold is Seen at 14980 & 15050 . A Closing above Same Would reverse the trend
Trend Analysis : Range bound ^ Sideways

Comex Gold : Currently trading Near crucial level of 955 $ , abv 962 Would make intraday bias as neutral and above 972 $ would change The trend to Postive. till than Sell on Rise For Possible lower targets of 920 $
Trend Analysis : Range bound

MCX Silver : Silver moved up above the crucial Resistance of 23980, a Breach below Same Would Indicate that bias has turned netural for the Day and shorts Can be attempted For Downside targets of 23300
Trend Analysis : Neutral to bearish

Comex silver : Silver Crossed crucial reistance of 1500 , but is findind it diffuclt to move the past the next intermediate resitance of 1532, a Breach below 1488 would again open Downside targets til l1430
Trend Analysis : neutral to bearish

MCX Crudeoil : Last Day For teh August Contract Expecting volatility and range bound trade between 3368--3442 on upside

NYMEX Crudeoil : Crude Re tested the Recent Resistance of 7346and failled to Cross again , and Falling down to 7200 levels, Making it a Case of triple top If closes Below 69.45$. Supports seen at 7225--7185--7046. A Close 7346 Would open trgts til 7680 7990
Trend Analysis : Sideways to upside

MCX Natural gas : As Indiacted yesterday that trend is down adn could further see Selling pressure if breaks 168, NG closed below the crucial Support of 168 opening downside trgts till 154. A retest of Resiatnce at 168 Cant Be rulled out
Trend analysis : Downward

Natural Gas : NG has been Trading inside a parallel Range Since last few Days , Break on any Side Could give a Fresh Move on any side , On upside 4.200 is very Importnat Reistance a Close above Same would Mean that the trend has Reversed and Now its Buy on Dips opening as upside trgt of 5.40$ and 7$ For Medium term As If Now . On Downisde Supports are near 3.882$--3.460--3.165$ , A close below 3.165 % would Mean that the correction is still on and Could try hit the new Possible Downside trgt of 2.41$

Base Metals

Commdity S1 S2 R1 R2 Pivot
Copper 306 304 310 313 306
Nickel 992 998 1014 1028 1007
LEad 90 90.1 91.85 92.4 91.85
Zinc 90.25 90.8 91.65 92 91.25